Nice 1-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.90 PPG, Paris Saint Germain 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nice, 0 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 35% versus Paris Saint Germain 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 50% | Paris Saint Germain 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.12 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.832 / defence 1.099 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.177 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.195. Paris Saint Germain bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Nice games / 26 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 28% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 47%. Fair-value odds: Nice 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Paris Saint Germain 2.13. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 50% | Paris Saint Germain 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 28% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Nice 1.12 / Paris Saint Germain 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.832 / def 1.099 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.177 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Paris Saint Germain xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice 1 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 28% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nice and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 0W.
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.83) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
28%
3.62
25%
3.93
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.55
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nice and 1.55 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 26 games, going 14W 5D 7L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.38 PPG from 26 outings (19W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 1.92 points per game from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Paris Saint Germain's season.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.15 scored and 0.88 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 62%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 14W 5D 7L in their last 26 games (1.81 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 19W 5D 2L in their last 26 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.62 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Nice or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Paris Saint Germain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 46%, Paris Saint Germain 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nice) and 54% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Nice's games and 77% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nice's recent games and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nice defy the odds to beat Paris Saint Germain 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Paris Saint Germain 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.12 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.55 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.18 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 28% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 47%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 50%, Paris Saint Germain 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.81. Form was overturned, with Nice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.