Nice 1-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Metz make the trip to Allianz Riviera to face Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Metz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Nice. A 1.10 PPG lead over Metz (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Metz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 32% | Metz 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.78 xG and Metz 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.027 / defence 0.665 | Metz attack 0.886 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.057. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Nice's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Nice games / 18 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 64% | Draw 26% | Metz 11%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.56 | Draw 3.85 | Metz 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Nice (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 30% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 64% | Draw 26% | Metz 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Nice 1.78 / Metz 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.027 / def 0.665 | Metz attack 0.886 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Nice (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Metz xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Metz kick off?
Nice vs Metz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Metz?
Nice 1 - 0 Metz.
Where is Nice vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Metz part of?
Nice vs Metz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 64% chance of winning, Metz a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nice and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Metz 1W.
What form are Nice and Metz in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Metz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.03) and Metz's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.89x) against Nice's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
64%
1.57
26%
3.92
11%
9.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Nice xG
Total xG
2.40
0.62
Metz xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
9.26
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
2%
54.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nice and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nice and 0.62 for Metz, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nice's recent record stands at 25W 18D 13L from 56 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 16L across 56 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Nice against 1.57 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nice have managed 13W 10D 5L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 13W 6D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.38 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Metz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Metz in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 25W 18D 13L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Metz have gone 24W 16D 16L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Metz away?
Nice's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.75 PPG; Metz away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Nice or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Metz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Metz have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Nice 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Metz?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 39%, Metz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Nice) and 46% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nice's recent matches and 54% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Nice's recent games and 46% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Metz tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Metz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Metz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Metz 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.78 xG and Metz 0.62 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.03 / defence 0.67 against Metz attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 64% | Draw 26% | Metz 11%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 32%, Metz 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.66 PPG, Metz 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.