Nantes 0-2 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Nantes welcome Nice to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ligue 1 matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Nice's 2.33 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of Nantes's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Nantes's 25% and Nice's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Nice in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nantes 0% | Nice 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 0% | Nice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.99 xG and Nice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.840 / defence 0.978 | Nice attack 1.131 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.440. Data: 4 Nantes games / 3 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Nantes 25% | Nice 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Nantes 0.99 / Nice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.840 / def 0.978 | Nice attack 1.131 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Nice xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Nice kick off?
Nantes vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Nice?
Nantes 0 - 2 Nice.
Where is Nantes vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Nice part of?
Nantes vs Nice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 20% chance of winning, Nice a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nantes and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Nice in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-L-L. Nice (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.00 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.84x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
20%
5.03
32%
3.10
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.58
1.59
Nice xG
5.03
20%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
24.70
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nantes and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nantes and 1.59 for Nice, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 2.67 scored and 0.00 conceded. Nice's attacking output running into Nantes's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Nice in 0%.
Defensively: Nice in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Nice in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Nice have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Nantes or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nice in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nantes
3
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Nice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nantes 0% BTTS, Nice 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nantes and 67% for Nice.
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nice in 100%; Nantes have failed to score in 67% of games; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nantes's recent matches and 0% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nantes's recent games and 67% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Nice tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.99 xG and Nice 1.59 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Nice attack 1.13 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 20% | Draw 32% | Nice 48%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 0%, Nice 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.