Nantes 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Nantes have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Nantes against 0.90 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nantes lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Nantes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 51% versus Le Havre 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 49% | Le Havre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.44 xG and Le Havre 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.885 / defence 1.043 | Le Havre attack 0.756 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.381. Data: 45 Nantes games / 45 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 3.57. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Nantes 1.44 / Le Havre 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.885 / def 1.043 | Le Havre attack 0.756 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Nantes (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Le Havre xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Le Havre kick off?
Nantes vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Nantes 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Nantes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Le Havre part of?
Nantes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 45% chance of winning, Le Havre a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nantes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Nantes vs Le Havre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.76x) against Nantes's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.72
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Le Havre xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nantes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Nantes and 1.09 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 10D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.91 PPG from 45 outings (10W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Nantes against 0.91 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nantes's home form reads 4W 5D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.93 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 24L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Le Havre away?
Nantes's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.77 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nantes
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Nantes 2-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 54%, Le Havre 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nantes) and 46% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games; Le Havre in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nantes's recent matches and 46% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nantes's recent games and 46% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.44 xG and Le Havre 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 49%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.96 PPG, Le Havre 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.