Nantes 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 3W 0D 2L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Clermont Foot have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 50% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 30% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.94 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.954 / defence 1.013 | Clermont Foot attack 0.855 / defence 1.633. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.221. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.633 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Nantes games / 10 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 55% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 17%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Nantes (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Nantes 20% | Clermont Foot 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 55% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Nantes 1.94 / Clermont Foot 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.954 / def 1.013 | Clermont Foot attack 0.855 / def 1.633 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Nantes (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Nantes 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nantes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 55% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nantes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.85x) against Nantes's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.60
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.00
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
2%
40.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Nantes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Nantes and 1.06 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 3L across 10 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Nantes against 1.30 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Nantes's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.80 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nantes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nantes
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Nantes) and 40% (Clermont Foot) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Nantes) and 60% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 40% of games; Clermont Foot in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Nantes's recent matches and 40% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Nantes's recent games and 60% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantes edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.94 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.63, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 55% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 17%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 30%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.