Montpellier 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Montpellier welcome Nantes to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Montpellier — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Montpellier at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Nantes have recorded 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Montpellier carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Montpellier, 3 for Nantes and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Montpellier 0–2 Nantes — a Nantes win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Montpellier trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Nantes trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 54% versus Nantes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 59% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.25 xG and Nantes 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.055 / defence 1.087 | Nantes attack 0.845 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.317. Data: built from Montpellier's last 68 games and Nantes's last 68.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 28% | Nantes 35%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.70 | Draw 3.60 | Nantes 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Montpellier 60% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 28% | Nantes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Montpellier 1.25 / Nantes 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.055 / def 1.087 | Nantes attack 0.845 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Nantes xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Montpellier vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Montpellier vs Nantes kick off?
Montpellier vs Nantes kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Nantes?
Montpellier 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Montpellier vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Nantes part of?
Montpellier vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 37% chance of winning, Nantes a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Montpellier and Nantes will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Montpellier vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Montpellier's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Montpellier's last 68 games and Nantes's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.60
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.46
1.21
Nantes xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Montpellier vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.21 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 24W 15D 29L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Nantes's form line: 16W 19D 33L from 68 games, 0.99 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.28 PPG, Nantes on 0.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 33 home games (9W 11D 13L).
On the road, Nantes have gone 8W 8D 17L from their last 33 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.96 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
Montpellier (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Montpellier
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Montpellier vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Montpellier and Nantes in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 24W 15D 29L in their last 68 games (1.28 PPG), while Nantes have gone 16W 19D 33L in their last 68 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Nantes away?
Montpellier's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.15 PPG; Nantes away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nantes in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Nantes have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Jan 2023, when Nantes won Montpellier 0-3 Nantes.
Montpellier's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
1
Draws
5
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Montpellier vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Nantes?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Montpellier have won 2, Nantes have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: Nantes 3-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 61%, Nantes 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Montpellier) and 48% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes in 30%; Nantes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Montpellier vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Montpellier and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Montpellier's recent matches and 48% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Montpellier and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Montpellier's recent games and 48% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Montpellier's recent matches and 54% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 31, as Montpellier and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.25 xG and Nantes 1.21 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 37% | Draw 28% | Nantes 35%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 59%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.28 PPG, Nantes 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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