Monaco 4-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Metz travel to Stade Louis II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco at Stade Louis II this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Monaco carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Monaco trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Metz trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 56% versus Metz 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 50% | Metz 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.56 xG and Metz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.058 / defence 1.149 | Metz attack 0.768 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.265. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Monaco games / 16 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Metz 26%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Metz 3.85. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 62% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Metz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Monaco 1.56 / Metz 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.058 / def 1.149 | Metz attack 0.768 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Monaco (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Metz xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Metz kick off?
Monaco vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Metz?
Monaco 4 - 0 Metz.
Where is Monaco vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Metz part of?
Monaco vs Metz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 46% chance of winning, Metz a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Monaco and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monaco and Metz in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Metz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.06) and Metz's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.53
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.68
1.12
Metz xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Monaco and 1.12 for Metz, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 2W 6D 8L from 16 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Metz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Metz have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.12 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Metz in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 games (1.44 PPG), while Metz have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Metz away?
Monaco's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.50 PPG; Metz away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Monaco have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Metz specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Monaco
0
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 6, Metz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Metz 1-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Metz?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 62%, Metz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monaco) and 62% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Monaco's games and 50% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Monaco's matches and 62% of Metz's.
Do Monaco and Metz tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Metz in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Metz 4-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.56 xG and Metz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Metz attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Metz 26%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 50%, Metz 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Metz's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.