Monaco 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis-II plays host to Monaco versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Louis-II — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Louis-II this season.
Lille have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Monaco against 2.00 for Lille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monaco lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Lille 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 63% | Lille 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.16 xG and Lille 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.939 / defence 0.865 | Lille attack 0.833 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.315. Data: 67 Monaco games / 67 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 40% | Draw 31% | Lille 29%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Lille 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Lille 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 40% | Draw 31% | Lille 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Monaco 1.16 / Lille 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.939 / def 0.865 | Lille attack 0.833 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Monaco (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Lille kick off?
Monaco vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Monaco vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Lille part of?
Monaco vs Lille is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 40% chance of winning, Lille a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Monaco and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 1W | Draws 2 | Lille 2W.
What form are Monaco and Lille in?
Monaco (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monaco's attack rating (0.94) and Lille's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.83x) against Monaco's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.27
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.11
0.95
Lille xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Monaco and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Monaco and 0.95 for Lille, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 35W 15D 17L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 33W 20D 14L from 67 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Monaco against 1.78 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.64 PPG from 33 outings (16W 6D 11L).
On the road, Lille have gone 9W 13D 11L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.61 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lille in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Lille in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 35W 15D 17L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while Lille have gone 33W 20D 14L in their last 67 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Lille away?
Monaco's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.64 PPG; Lille away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Monaco or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lille in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Monaco
3
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 2, Lille have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 58%, Lille 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Monaco) and 36% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 33%; Lille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Monaco's games and 54% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Monaco's recent games and 36% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Lille tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Lille 1-0 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.16 xG and Lille 0.95 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Lille attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 40% | Draw 31% | Lille 29%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 63%, Lille 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.79 PPG, Lille 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.