Lyon 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Saint Etienne travel to Groupama Stadium to take on Lyon in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lyon have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lyon's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Lyon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Lyon have won 1, Saint Etienne 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2022, ended Lyon 1–0 Saint Etienne — a Lyon win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 54% versus Saint Etienne 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Saint Etienne 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 3.08 xG and Saint Etienne 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.100 / defence 1.107 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / defence 1.814. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.420. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.814 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lyon's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Lyon's last 44 games and Saint Etienne's last 10.
Result probabilities: Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.34 | Draw 6.97 | Saint Etienne 9.06. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (75%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (3.08 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lyon 70% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Lyon 3.08 / Saint Etienne 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.100 / def 1.107 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / def 1.814 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Lyon (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.08
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
67%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Lyon 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Lyon vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Saint Etienne part of?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 75% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lyon and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lyon vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.08. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 44 games and Saint Etienne's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
75%
1.34
14%
6.97
11%
9.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
3 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.08
Lyon xG
Total xG
4.27
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.97
14%
Draw
9.06
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
5%
21.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
1%
197.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Lyon and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Lyon and 1.19 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 20W 8D 16L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 15L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 9W 5D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across their last 21 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 20W 8D 16L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Saint Etienne away?
Lyon's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.52 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lyon or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lyon and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2025: Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 57%, Saint Etienne 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 48% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 43%; Saint Etienne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lyon's recent matches and 29% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lyon and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lyon's recent matches and 71% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 3.08 xG and Saint Etienne 1.19 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.81, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Saint Etienne 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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