Lyon 4-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Le Havre at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon at Groupama Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Groupama Stadium.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Lyon have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lyon, 1 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 4–0 with Lyon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Le Havre trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 56% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Le Havre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.16 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.220 / defence 0.872 | Le Havre attack 1.097 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.378. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Lyon games / 59 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 56% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 23%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 50% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 56% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Lyon 2.16 / Le Havre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.220 / def 0.872 | Le Havre attack 1.097 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Lyon (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Le Havre xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Le Havre kick off?
Lyon vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Lyon 4 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Lyon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Le Havre part of?
Lyon vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 56% chance of winning, Le Havre a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lyon and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.22) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.75
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.48
1.32
Le Havre xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
3%
38.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Lyon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Lyon and 1.32 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 28W 11D 20L from 59 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 32L across 59 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 14W 6D 9L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 5W 11D 13L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.98 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 28W 11D 20L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 14D 32L in their last 59 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Le Havre away?
Lyon's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.66 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Lyon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Le Havre in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lyon
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
From 7 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Le Havre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 55%, Le Havre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lyon) and 48% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Le Havre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Lyon's games and 55% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lyon's recent games and 48% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Le Havre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Le Havre 4-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.16 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Le Havre attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 56% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 23%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Le Havre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.