Lyon 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Le Havre at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon at Groupama Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lyon at 1.30 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lyon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Le Havre trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 69% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 64% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.80 xG and Le Havre 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.035 / defence 1.387 | Le Havre attack 1.010 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.284. Data: 42 Lyon games / 4 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 38% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 38%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 38% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Lyon 1.80 / Le Havre 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.035 / def 1.387 | Le Havre attack 1.010 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Le Havre xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Le Havre kick off?
Lyon vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Lyon 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Lyon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Le Havre part of?
Lyon vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 38% chance of winning, Le Havre a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Lyon and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.03) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.09
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.59
1.80
Le Havre xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lyon and 1.80 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 18W 9D 15L from 42 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 4L across 42 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.50 PPG, Le Havre on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 9W 10D 2L across 21 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.29 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 21W 17D 4L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.67 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Lyon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Le Havre in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Le Havre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 67%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lyon) and 29% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lyon's games and 48% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lyon's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Le Havre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lyon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.80 xG and Le Havre 1.80 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.03 / defence 1.39 against Le Havre attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 38% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 38%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 64%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.50 PPG, Le Havre 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.