Lyon 3-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc Olympique Lyonnais plays host to Lyon versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Lyon, 1.20 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Lyon 2W, Auxerre 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 55% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 58% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.46 xG and Auxerre 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.040 / defence 0.802 | Auxerre attack 0.898 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.241. Data: 64 Lyon games / 64 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Auxerre 4.55. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 50% | Auxerre 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lyon 1.46 / Auxerre 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.040 / def 0.802 | Auxerre attack 0.898 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Lyon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Auxerre kick off?
Lyon vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Lyon 3 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lyon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Auxerre part of?
Lyon vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 49% chance of winning, Auxerre a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lyon and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Lyon 2W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.90x) against Lyon's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.35
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.35
0.89
Auxerre xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lyon and 0.89 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lyon come into this having played 64 games, going 33W 12D 19L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.05 PPG from 64 outings (16W 19D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lyon's home form reads 21W 3D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 33W 12D 19L in their last 64 games (1.73 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 16W 19D 29L in their last 64 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Auxerre away?
Lyon's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.13 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Lyon or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Auxerre in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Auxerre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 52%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lyon) and 55% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Auxerre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lyon's recent matches and 58% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lyon's matches and 55% of Auxerre's.
Do Lyon and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Auxerre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Auxerre 3-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.46 xG and Auxerre 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.