Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 69% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lille face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy to face Lille in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Lille have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Saint Etienne's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Lille, 1.10 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Saint Etienne edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Lille 0–1 Saint Etienne — a Saint Etienne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 55% versus Saint Etienne 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 47% | Saint Etienne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.37 xG and Saint Etienne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.077 / defence 0.906 | Saint Etienne attack 0.737 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.311. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.472 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lille's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Lille's last 53 games and Saint Etienne's last 19.
Result probabilities: Lille 69% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 10%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.45 | Draw 4.87 | Saint Etienne 9.59. The model has a clear lean to Lille (69%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 80% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 69% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lille 2.37 / Saint Etienne 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.077 / def 0.906 | Saint Etienne attack 0.737 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Lille (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Lille vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Lille vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Lille 4 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Lille vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Saint Etienne part of?
Lille vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 69% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lille and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.74x) against Lille's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 53 games and Saint Etienne's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.87
10%
9.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Lille xG
Total xG
3.25
0.88
Saint Etienne xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
9.59
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
102.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Lille and 0.88 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 24W 19D 10L from 53 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 20L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Lille against 1.49 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 16W 7D 3L from their last 26 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.23 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Saint Etienne in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Lille vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 24W 19D 10L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 10D 20L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Saint Etienne away?
Lille's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.12 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Lille or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lille
2
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Saint Etienne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 58%, Saint Etienne 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 35%; Saint Etienne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Lille's recent matches and 35% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lille and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Lille's recent matches and 73% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Saint Etienne 4-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.37 xG and Saint Etienne 0.88 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Saint Etienne attack 0.74 / defence 1.47, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 69% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 10%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Saint Etienne 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.72 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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