Lille 1-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lille face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lille welcome Rennes to Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rennes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Rennes in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lille, 0 for Rennes and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Rennes in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 51% versus Rennes 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 47% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.14 xG and Rennes 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.140 / defence 1.022 | Rennes attack 0.835 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.396. Rennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Lille games / 45 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Rennes 20%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Rennes 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lille (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 80% | Rennes 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Rennes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Lille 2.14 / Rennes 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.140 / def 1.022 | Rennes attack 0.835 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Lille (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rennes xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Rennes kick off?
Lille vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Rennes?
Lille 1 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Lille vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Rennes part of?
Lille vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 59% chance of winning, Rennes a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lille and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Rennes?
Record (6 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 4 | Rennes 0W.
What form are Lille and Rennes in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Rennes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lille vs Rennes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.14x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.68
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Lille xG
Total xG
3.33
1.19
Rennes xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
12%
8.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
2%
42.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lille and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Lille and 1.19 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Rennes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 15D 9L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (15W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Rennes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lille's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.47 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes in 62%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Rennes in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 21W 15D 9L in their last 45 games (1.73 PPG), while Rennes have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Rennes away?
Lille's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.05 PPG; Rennes away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lille or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Rennes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lille's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
4
Draws
1
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Rennes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Rennes?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 54%, Rennes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rennes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lille's recent matches and 54% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Rennes tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Rennes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Rennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Rennes 1-0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.14 xG and Rennes 1.19 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rennes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Rennes attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 59% | Draw 21% | Rennes 20%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rennes's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.