Le Havre 2-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 37%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 4 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Angers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Angers are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Angers 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Angers 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 54% | Angers 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.98 xG and Angers 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.736 / defence 0.909 | Angers attack 0.810 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.199. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Le Havre games / 50 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Angers 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Angers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 70% | Angers 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Angers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Le Havre 0.98 / Angers 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.736 / def 0.909 | Angers attack 0.810 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Angers xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Angers kick off?
Le Havre vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Angers?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Angers.
Where is Le Havre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Angers part of?
Le Havre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 37% chance of winning, Angers a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Havre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Angers?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Angers 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Angers in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Angers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.74) and Angers's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.81x) against Le Havre's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.86
0.88
Angers xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.88 for Angers, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 10D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.16 PPG from 50 outings (16W 10D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Le Havre against 1.16 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 6D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Angers in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 10D 27L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Angers have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Angers away?
Angers's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.84 PPG; Angers away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Angers?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Angers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Angers 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 60%, Angers 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Le Havre) and 20% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games; Angers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Le Havre's recent matches and 32% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Le Havre's recent games and 20% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Angers tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Angers in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Angers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Angers 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.98 xG and Angers 0.88 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Angers attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Angers 31%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 54%, Angers 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.98 PPG, Angers 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.