Estac Troyes 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Estac Troyes welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 3D 2L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Estac Troyes have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 62% and Saint Etienne 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 46% | Saint Etienne 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.83 xG and Saint Etienne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.903 / defence 1.176 | Saint Etienne attack 0.779 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.171. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Estac Troyes games / 13 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 19%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Saint Etienne 5.26. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 83% | Saint Etienne 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Estac Troyes 1.83 / Saint Etienne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.903 / def 1.176 | Saint Etienne attack 0.779 / def 1.554 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Saint Etienne xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 52% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.44
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.91
1.07
Saint Etienne xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
3%
33.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.07 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 6L across 13 games — 0.69 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.15 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 1W 6D 6L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.00 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estac Troyes at 83%, Saint Etienne at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 67% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Estac Troyes's games and 83% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estac Troyes's matches and 67% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.83 xG and Saint Etienne 1.07 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.55, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 19%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 46%, Saint Etienne 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.