Estac Troyes vs Angers Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Angers at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Angers travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estac Troyes's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Angers — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Angers away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estac Troyes 0.80 PPG, Angers 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Angers have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Estac Troyes.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2026, ended Estac Troyes 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Angers have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Angers trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 48% versus Angers 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 50% | Angers 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.40 xG and Angers 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.740 / defence 1.362 | Angers attack 0.830 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Angers's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 10 games and Angers's last 44.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 26% | Angers 39%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.87 | Draw 3.79 | Angers 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Angers 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 home games) | Angers 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 26% | Angers 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.40 / Angers 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.740 / def 1.362 | Angers attack 0.830 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Angers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Angers xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Angers FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Angers kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Angers is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Angers part of?
Estac Troyes vs Angers is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 35% chance of winning, Angers a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Estac Troyes and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estac Troyes vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 10 games and Angers's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.79
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.88
1.48
Angers xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.48 for Angers, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 22W 9D 13L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 11W 11D 22L from 44 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 21 home games (14W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Angers have gone 4W 5D 12L from their last 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.86 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Angers
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Angers in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Angers have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Angers away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.10 PPG; Angers away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Angers in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Angers have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Dec 2023, when Angers won Estac Troyes 1-4 Angers.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
5
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Angers?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 1, Angers have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Angers 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 52%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Estac Troyes) and 38% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Angers in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 38% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 67% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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