Clermont Foot 1-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monaco make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 2L across 7 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.29 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Ligue 1 appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monaco have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Monaco have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.29 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.14 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Monaco in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Monaco — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 43% versus Monaco 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 57% | Monaco 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Monaco 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.957 / defence 1.113 | Monaco attack 0.944 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.334. Data: 7 Clermont Foot games / 7 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 33% | Monaco 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Monaco 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 67% | Monaco 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 33% | Monaco 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Clermont Foot 1.32 / Monaco 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.957 / def 1.113 | Monaco attack 0.944 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Monaco (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Monaco xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Monaco kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Clermont Foot 1 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Monaco part of?
Clermont Foot vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Monaco a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Clermont Foot and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Monaco in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.29 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.94x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
32%
3.17
33%
3.03
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.72
1.40
Monaco xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.40 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 3D 2L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.14 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Monaco in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Monaco have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Monaco away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.67 PPG; Monaco away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 4-0 on 16 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Clermont Foot, 67% for Monaco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Clermont Foot) and 67% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Monaco in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Clermont Foot's games and 67% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 67% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Monaco tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Monaco in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Clermont Foot 1-3 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Monaco 1.40 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 33% | Monaco 35%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 57%, Monaco 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.29 PPG, Monaco 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.