Clermont Foot 2-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Clermont Foot welcome Auxerre to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Clermont Foot at 1.30 PPG versus Auxerre's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 49% versus Auxerre 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.87 xG and Auxerre 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / defence 1.153 | Auxerre attack 0.774 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.463. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Clermont Foot games / 9 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 50% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 3.85. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 50% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Clermont Foot 1.87 / Auxerre 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.899 / def 1.153 | Auxerre attack 0.774 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Auxerre kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Auxerre?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Auxerre part of?
Clermont Foot vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 50% chance of winning, Auxerre a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Clermont Foot and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Auxerre in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.90x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.13
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.17
1.30
Auxerre xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
24.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.30 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 10D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.66 PPG from 47 outings (21W 15D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.65 points per game from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.43 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 15D 11L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.04 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Auxerre runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Auxerre 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Auxerre?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 61%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Clermont Foot) and 52% (Auxerre).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Clermont Foot's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Auxerre tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Auxerre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Auxerre 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.87 xG and Auxerre 1.30 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.44, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 50% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 26%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.