Bordeaux 4-3 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Bordeaux welcome Strasbourg to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bordeaux have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Matmut-Atlantique — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Strasbourg stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Strasbourg are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bordeaux, 1 for Strasbourg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 2–5 with Strasbourg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Strasbourg trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 76% and Strasbourg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 71% | Strasbourg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.01 xG and Strasbourg 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.028 / defence 1.515 | Strasbourg attack 1.058 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.201. Data: 21 Bordeaux games / 21 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 19% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 58%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Strasbourg 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 90% | Strasbourg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 19% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Bordeaux 1.01 / Strasbourg 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.028 / def 1.515 | Strasbourg attack 1.058 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Strasbourg xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Strasbourg kick off?
Bordeaux vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Strasbourg?
Bordeaux 4 - 3 Strasbourg.
Where is Bordeaux vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Strasbourg part of?
Bordeaux vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 19% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bordeaux and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Strasbourg?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Strasbourg in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.03x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
19%
5.38
24%
4.21
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.94
1.92
Strasbourg xG
5.38
19%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
3%
36.86
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.92 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Strasbourg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 8D 10L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Strasbourg sit at 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bordeaux's home form reads 1W 4D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Strasbourg have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.95 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.70 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Strasbourg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Strasbourg?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Strasbourg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Bordeaux 4-3 Strasbourg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 90%, Strasbourg at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bordeaux) and 40% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Bordeaux's games and 50% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bordeaux's recent games and 40% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Strasbourg 4-3 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.01 xG and Strasbourg 1.92 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Strasbourg outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.03 / defence 1.51 against Strasbourg attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 19% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 58%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Bordeaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 71%, Strasbourg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Bordeaux winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.