Bordeaux 1-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Bordeaux welcome Angers to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Ligue 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Angers's 3.00 PPG return is 2.50 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.84 xG and Angers 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.753 / defence 1.156 | Angers attack 0.894 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.639. Bordeaux's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Bordeaux games / 2 Angers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 15% | Draw 31% | Angers 54%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 6.67 | Draw 3.23 | Angers 1.85. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 15% | Draw 31% | Angers 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Bordeaux 0.84 / Angers 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.753 / def 1.156 | Angers attack 0.894 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.639 • Poisson stance: Angers (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Angers xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Angers kick off?
Bordeaux vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Angers?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 Angers.
Where is Bordeaux vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Angers part of?
Bordeaux vs Angers is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 15% chance of winning, Angers a 54% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bordeaux and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Angers in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D. Angers (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
15%
6.64
31%
3.26
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.54
1.69
Angers xG
6.64
15%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
3%
36.11
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.69 for Angers, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Angers sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Angers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 2.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers in 0%.
Defensively: Angers in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Angers in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Angers have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Bordeaux or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Angers in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when Angers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Angers?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 0% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bordeaux's recent games and 50% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bordeaux and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 3, as Bordeaux and Angers drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.84 xG and Angers 1.69 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Angers attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 15% | Draw 31% | Angers 54%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 50%, Angers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bordeaux conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Angers managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.