Auxerre 4-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rennes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Rennes (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Rennes and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 58% and Rennes 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 58% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.68 xG and Rennes 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.028 / defence 1.028 | Rennes attack 0.935 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.371. Data: 9 Auxerre games / 43 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 29%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 3.45. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Rennes 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Auxerre 1.68 / Rennes 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.028 / def 1.028 | Rennes attack 0.935 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Rennes xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Rennes kick off?
Auxerre vs Rennes kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Auxerre 4 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Auxerre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Rennes part of?
Auxerre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, Rennes a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Auxerre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Rennes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Auxerre vs Rennes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.03x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.94x) against Auxerre's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.77
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.00
1.32
Rennes xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.32 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 23W 10D 10L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rennes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.33 PPG from 21 outings (15W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rennes have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.53 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Rennes have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Rennes away?
Auxerre's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.33 PPG; Rennes away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rennes in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-3 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 52%, Rennes 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Auxerre) and 48% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rennes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Auxerre's recent matches and 57% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Auxerre's recent games and 48% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Rennes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rennes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Rennes 4-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.68 xG and Rennes 1.32 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rennes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Rennes attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 29%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rennes's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.