Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Auxerre face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Auxerre at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Paris Saint Germain have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Auxerre.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2026, ended Auxerre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.94 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.777 / defence 0.963 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.503 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Paris Saint Germain bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Auxerre's projected output down. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.503, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Data: built from Auxerre's last 44 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 44.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 18% | Draw 23% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 5.69 | Draw 4.28 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 18% | Draw 23% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Auxerre 0.94 / Paris Saint Germain 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.777 / def 0.963 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.503 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Paris Saint Germain xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 18% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 44 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
18%
5.69
23%
4.28
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.84
1.90
Paris Saint Germain xG
5.69
18%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
15%
6.68
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
3%
37.99
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.90 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.25 PPG from 44 outings (31W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across their last 22 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.18 points per game from their last 22 away games (15W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.18 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 31W 6D 7L in their last 44 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.32 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Auxerre.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 41%, Paris Saint Germain 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Auxerre) and 59% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 36%; Auxerre have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Auxerre's recent matches and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Auxerre's recent games and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 68% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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