Auxerre 2-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Nice meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nice (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nice — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Nice 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Nice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.29 xG and Nice 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.837 / defence 0.831 | Nice attack 0.852 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Auxerre games / 66 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 32% | Nice 25%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Nice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 30% | Nice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 32% | Nice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Auxerre 1.29 / Nice 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.837 / def 0.831 | Nice attack 0.852 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Nice xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nice kick off?
Auxerre vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Nice.
Where is Auxerre vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nice part of?
Auxerre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 43% chance of winning, Nice a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Auxerre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 3 | Nice 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Nice in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Nice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.84) and Nice's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.85x) against Auxerre's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.14
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
0.92
Nice xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.92 for Nice, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre's recent record stands at 17W 19D 30L from 66 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 23L across 66 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Auxerre against 1.38 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 12W 10D 11L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.55 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nice in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 17W 19D 30L in their last 66 games (1.06 PPG), while Nice have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nice away?
Auxerre's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.39 PPG; Nice away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Nice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nice?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 39%, Nice 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 61% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Auxerre's recent matches and 70% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Auxerre's matches and 61% of Nice's.
Do Auxerre and Nice tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Nice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Nice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Nice 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.29 xG and Nice 0.92 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Nice attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 43% | Draw 32% | Nice 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Nice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.06 PPG, Nice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.