Auxerre 1-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45%, yet in-form Monaco provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Monaco travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Monaco have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–4 with Monaco winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Monaco 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 60% | Monaco 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.37 xG and Monaco 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.862 / defence 0.907 | Monaco attack 0.883 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.251. Data: 37 Auxerre games / 37 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 3.70. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 50% | Monaco 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Auxerre 1.37 / Monaco 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.862 / def 0.907 | Monaco attack 0.883 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Monaco xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Monaco kick off?
Auxerre vs Monaco kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Auxerre 1 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Auxerre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Monaco part of?
Auxerre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, Monaco a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Auxerre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.86x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.67
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.37
1.00
Monaco xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.00 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (20W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.86 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Monaco have gone 20W 7D 10L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Monaco away?
Auxerre's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.67 PPG; Monaco away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 44%, Monaco 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Auxerre and 67% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Auxerre's games and 67% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Auxerre's matches and 67% of Monaco's.
Do Auxerre and Monaco tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Monaco in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Auxerre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 1-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.37 xG and Monaco 1.00 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Monaco attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 60%, Monaco 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.