Auxerre 3-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Metz meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Metz have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Metz — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Metz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Metz 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.74 xG and Metz 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.618 / defence 0.865 | Metz attack 0.975 / defence 1.726. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.155. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 1.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.726 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Auxerre games / 14 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 24% | Metz 21%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Metz 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Metz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 24% | Metz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Auxerre 1.74 / Metz 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.618 / def 0.865 | Metz attack 0.975 / def 1.726 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Metz xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Metz kick off?
Auxerre vs Metz kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Metz?
Auxerre 3 - 1 Metz.
Where is Auxerre vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Metz part of?
Auxerre vs Metz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, Metz a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Metz in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Metz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.62) and Metz's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.97x) against Auxerre's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.24
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.71
0.97
Metz xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
27.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.97 for Metz, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 22W 12D 14L from 48 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Metz are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, Metz have gone 9W 5D 10L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.62 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Metz in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Metz away?
Auxerre's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.42 PPG; Metz away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Metz?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Metz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Metz 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Metz?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 42%, Metz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 67% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Auxerre's recent matches and 62% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Auxerre's matches and 67% of Metz's.
Do Auxerre and Metz tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Metz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Metz 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.74 xG and Metz 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.62 / defence 0.86 against Metz attack 0.97 / defence 1.73, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 55% | Draw 24% | Metz 21%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.