Auxerre 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Auxerre welcome Clermont Foot to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.80 PPG versus Clermont Foot's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 59% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.79 xG and Clermont Foot 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.733 / defence 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.991 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.252. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Auxerre games / 71 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 48%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Clermont Foot 2.08. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Auxerre 0.79 / Clermont Foot 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.733 / def 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.991 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Clermont Foot xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Auxerre vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Clermont Foot part of?
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 23% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Auxerre and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Clermont Foot in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.73) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
23%
4.32
29%
3.44
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.07
1.28
Clermont Foot xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.28 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 27W 22D 22L from 71 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 32L across 71 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.45 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 15W 11D 9L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 12W 7D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.04 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 22D 22L in their last 71 games (1.45 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 23W 16D 32L in their last 71 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Clermont Foot away?
Auxerre's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.60 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Clermont Foot?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Auxerre 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 57%, Clermont Foot 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Auxerre) and 43% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Auxerre's recent matches and 43% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Auxerre's recent games and 43% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 34, as Auxerre and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.79 xG and Clermont Foot 1.28 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.99 / defence 0.78, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 48%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.45 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.