Angers 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Angers at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Angers's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Angers 0W, Saint Etienne 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 67% and Saint Etienne 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 52% | Saint Etienne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.40 xG and Saint Etienne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.891 / defence 1.265 | Saint Etienne attack 0.578 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.219. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Angers games / 21 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 48% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 23%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Saint Etienne 4.35. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Angers 50% | Saint Etienne 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 48% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Angers 1.40 / Saint Etienne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.891 / def 1.265 | Saint Etienne attack 0.578 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Angers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Angers vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Angers 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Angers vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Saint Etienne part of?
Angers vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 48% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Angers and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Angers and Saint Etienne in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.58x) against Angers's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.41
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Angers xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Saint Etienne xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Angers and 0.89 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 8D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.57 PPG from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 0.86 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 13L in their last 21 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Saint Etienne away?
Angers's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.60 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 0-3 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Saint Etienne 3-3 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 50%, Saint Etienne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Angers) and 40% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Angers's recent games and 40% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Angers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Angers 0-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.40 xG and Saint Etienne 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Saint Etienne attack 0.58 / defence 1.34, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 48% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 23%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 52%, Saint Etienne 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Saint Etienne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.