VPS 3-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SJK travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 August 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 4W 2D 4L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VPS 1.80 PPG, SJK 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. VPS's 20% rate and SJK's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VPS, 1 for SJK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
SJK trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 44% versus SJK 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 58% | SJK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.04 xG and SJK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.172 / defence 0.831 | SJK attack 1.083 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.124. SJK's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 VPS games / 39 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 33% | SJK 33%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | SJK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: VPS 20% | SJK 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 34% | Draw 33% | SJK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG VPS 1.04 / SJK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.172 / def 0.831 | SJK attack 1.083 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: VPS (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SJK xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs SJK kick off?
VPS vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 August 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs SJK?
VPS 3 - 2 SJK.
Where is VPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs SJK part of?
VPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 34% chance of winning, SJK a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both VPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
Record (1 meetings): VPS 0W | Draws 0 | SJK 1W.
What form are VPS and SJK in?
VPS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.17x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
34%
2.90
33%
3.05
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
VPS xG
Total xG
2.05
1.01
SJK xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are VPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for VPS and 1.01 for SJK, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 19W 7D 19L from 45 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 15L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.42 PPG, SJK on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SJK's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.22 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and SJK in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 19W 7D 19L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while SJK have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.19 PPG; SJK away: 1.24 PPG.
Have VPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SJK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting SJK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, SJK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between VPS and SJK?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SJK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 38%, SJK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VPS) and 29% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 33%; VPS have failed to score in 43% of games; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of VPS's recent matches and 38% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of VPS's recent games and 29% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and SJK tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SJK in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out SJK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 3-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.04 xG and SJK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against SJK attack 1.08 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 34% | Draw 33% | SJK 33%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 58%, SJK 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.42 PPG, SJK 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. SJK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.