VPS 1-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face SJK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees SJK travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for VPS, 3 for SJK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2026, ended 2–1 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SJK trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 63% and SJK 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 51% | SJK 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.28 xG and SJK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.359 / defence 0.832 | SJK attack 1.121 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.200. VPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 VPS games / 36 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 62% | Draw 22% | SJK 16%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | SJK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to VPS (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: VPS 70% | SJK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 62% | Draw 22% | SJK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG VPS 2.28 / SJK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.359 / def 0.832 | SJK attack 1.121 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: VPS (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SJK xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs SJK kick off?
VPS vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 10 July 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs SJK?
VPS 1 - 0 SJK.
Where is VPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs SJK part of?
VPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 62% chance of winning, SJK a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
Record (9 meetings): VPS 5W | Draws 1 | SJK 3W.
What form are VPS and SJK in?
VPS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.36x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.51
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
VPS xG
Total xG
3.40
1.12
SJK xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
10%
9.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
2%
61.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are VPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for VPS and 1.12 for SJK, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 14W 13D 14L from 41 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 13L across 41 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.34 PPG, SJK on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SJK's away record stands at 7W 7D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.93 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SJK in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and SJK in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while SJK have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or SJK away?
VPS's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.62 PPG; SJK away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting SJK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, SJK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between VPS and SJK?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VPS at 62%, SJK at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for VPS and 81% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VPS's games and 76% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of VPS's matches and 81% of SJK's.
Do VPS and SJK tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SJK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out SJK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 1-0 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 2.28 xG and SJK 1.12 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VPS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SJK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.36 / defence 0.83 against SJK attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 62% | Draw 22% | SJK 16%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 51%, SJK 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.34 PPG, SJK 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.