VPS 1-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees SJK travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 7W 1D 2L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SJK's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VPS, 1 for SJK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SJK trading profile (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 45% versus SJK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 55% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.71 xG and SJK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.033 / defence 0.992 | SJK attack 0.994 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.124. Data: 23 VPS games / 23 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | SJK 4.55. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: VPS 50% | SJK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG VPS 1.71 / SJK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.033 / def 0.992 | SJK attack 0.994 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: VPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SJK xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs SJK kick off?
VPS vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs SJK?
VPS 1 - 1 SJK.
Where is VPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs SJK part of?
VPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 49% chance of winning, SJK a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
Record (3 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 0 | SJK 1W.
What form are VPS and SJK in?
VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.03x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.42
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
VPS xG
Total xG
2.82
1.11
SJK xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
25.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are VPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for VPS and 1.11 for SJK, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 29W 8D 19L from 56 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
SJK, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 22L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.70 PPG, SJK on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SJK's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and SJK in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 29W 8D 19L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or SJK away?
VPS's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.46 PPG; SJK away: 1.15 PPG.
Have VPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SJK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting SJK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, SJK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between VPS and SJK?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 46%, SJK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VPS) and 35% (SJK).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 35% of games; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of VPS's recent matches and 42% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VPS's recent games and 35% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and SJK tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SJK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and SJK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and SJK finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.71 xG and SJK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against SJK attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 49% | Draw 29% | SJK 22%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 55%, SJK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.70 PPG, SJK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.