VPS 0-1 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Honka travel to Elisa Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 June 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Honka have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Honka's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.94 xG and Honka 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.743 / defence 1.162 | Honka attack 0.929 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.357. VPS's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 VPS games / 32 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 24% | Draw 27% | Honka 49%. Fair-value odds: VPS 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Honka 2.04. Honka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Honka are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Honka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jun 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 24% | Draw 27% | Honka 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG VPS 0.94 / Honka 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.743 / def 1.162 | Honka attack 0.929 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Honka (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Honka xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Honka kick off?
VPS vs Honka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Honka?
VPS 0 - 1 Honka.
Where is VPS vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Honka part of?
VPS vs Honka is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 24% chance of winning, Honka a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VPS and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Honka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and Honka in?
Honka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Honka away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Honka's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Honka's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
24%
4.24
27%
3.64
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
VPS xG
Total xG
2.40
1.47
Honka xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
18.33
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.3 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for VPS and 1.47 for Honka, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Pre-Season
Honka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Honka won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Honka specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
VPS
1
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Honka?
From 7 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, Honka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when VPS 1-0 Honka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Honka edge out VPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat VPS 0-1 at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.94 xG and Honka 1.47 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VPS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Honka attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 10/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 24% | Draw 27% | Honka 49%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.