SJK 1-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as SJK take on VPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SJK host VPS at OmaSp Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SJK's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at OmaSp Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SJK have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SJK, 4 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
VPS in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 69% and VPS 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 78% | VPS 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 0.94 xG and VPS 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.831 / defence 1.064 | VPS attack 0.755 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.115. VPS's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 SJK games / 32 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 33% | Draw 36% | VPS 31%. Fair-value odds: SJK 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | VPS 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 38% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SJK 70% | VPS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jun 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 33% | Draw 36% | VPS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG SJK 0.94 / VPS 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.831 / def 1.064 | VPS attack 0.755 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.90
VPS xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs VPS kick off?
SJK vs VPS kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs VPS?
SJK 1 - 2 VPS.
Where is SJK vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs VPS part of?
SJK vs VPS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 33% chance of winning, VPS a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SJK vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both SJK and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
Record (8 meetings): SJK 3W | Draws 1 | VPS 4W.
What form are SJK and VPS in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SJK's attack rating (0.83) and VPS's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
36%
2.77
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
SJK xG
Total xG
1.84
0.90
VPS xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are SJK and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SJK and 0.90 for VPS, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 26W 13D 16L from 55 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.65 PPG, VPS on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.45 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; VPS in 73%.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and VPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 26W 13D 16L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while VPS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or VPS away?
SJK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.73 PPG; VPS away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SJK at 69%, VPS at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SJK and 81% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 77% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SJK's matches and 81% of VPS's.
Do SJK and VPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, VPS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat SJK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 1-2 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 0.94 xG and VPS 0.90 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VPS outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against VPS attack 0.76 / defence 0.77, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 33% | Draw 36% | VPS 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 78%, VPS 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.65 PPG, VPS 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.