SJK 1-1 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Kooteepee travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.13 xG and Kooteepee 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kooteepee attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 0.654. Data: 0 SJK games / 0 Kooteepee games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 47% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 21%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Kooteepee 4.76. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Kooteepee's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 47% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG SJK 1.13 / Kooteepee 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kooteepee attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.152 / away 0.654 • Poisson stance: SJK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Kooteepee xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Kooteepee kick off?
SJK vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
SJK 1 - 1 Kooteepee.
Where is SJK vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Kooteepee part of?
SJK vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 47% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both SJK and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Kooteepee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Kooteepee in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SJK's attack rating (0.85) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.14
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SJK xG
Total xG
1.76
0.64
Kooteepee xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are SJK and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SJK and 0.64 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Pre-Season
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SJK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SJK
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Kooteepee?
From 6 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Kooteepee?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SJK and Kooteepee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as SJK and Kooteepee drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.13 xG and Kooteepee 0.64 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kooteepee attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 47% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 21%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.