Mariehamn 6-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Lahti fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Mariehamn welcome Lahti to Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 4W 3D 3L at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lahti — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Lahti have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 0.90 (Lahti). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lahti in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mariehamn, 0 for Lahti and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lahti trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 45% versus Lahti 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 45% | Lahti 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.95 xG and Lahti 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.042 / defence 1.119 | Lahti attack 0.900 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Lahti bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Lahti games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 48% | Draw 24% | Lahti 28%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Lahti 3.57. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 80% | Lahti 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 48% | Draw 24% | Lahti 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Mariehamn 1.95 / Lahti 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.042 / def 1.119 | Lahti attack 0.900 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Lahti xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Lahti kick off?
Mariehamn vs Lahti kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn 6 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Mariehamn vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Lahti part of?
Mariehamn vs Lahti is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 48% chance of winning, Lahti a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mariehamn and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Record (1 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 0 | Lahti 0W.
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Lahti (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mariehamn's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.25
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.41
1.46
Lahti xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.46 for Lahti, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 9D 25L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (14W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.10 PPG, Lahti on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mariehamn's home form reads 8W 5D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (7W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 1.10 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Lahti have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Lahti away?
Lahti's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.21 PPG; Lahti away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, Lahti have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Lahti 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 54% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Lahti?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 58% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 54% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Lahti tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lahti in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mariehamn run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Lahti.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Lahti 6-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.95 xG and Lahti 1.46 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lahti landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.04 / defence 1.12 against Lahti attack 0.90 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 48% | Draw 24% | Lahti 28%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 45%, Lahti 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Lahti's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.10 PPG, Lahti 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.