Mariehamn 3-0 EIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs EIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 3 as Mariehamn welcome EIF to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 4D 4L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklöf Holding Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, EIF have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for EIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, EIF have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mariehamn 0.40 PPG, EIF 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mariehamn, 0 for EIF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
EIF trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 54% and EIF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mariehamn 67% | EIF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.71 xG and EIF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.725 / defence 1.110 | EIF attack 0.772 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. EIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 22 EIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | EIF 23%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | EIF 4.35. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 50% | EIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs EIF | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | EIF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Mariehamn 1.71 / EIF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.725 / def 1.110 | EIF attack 0.772 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.07
EIF xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs EIF kick off?
Mariehamn vs EIF kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs EIF?
Mariehamn 3 - 0 EIF.
Where is Mariehamn vs EIF being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs EIF part of?
Mariehamn vs EIF is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 52% chance of winning, EIF a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mariehamn and EIF will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs EIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and EIF?
Record (2 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 0 | EIF 0W.
What form are Mariehamn and EIF in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. EIF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.72x the league average against EIF's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, EIF's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.98
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.78
1.07
EIF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
24.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and EIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.07 for EIF, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs EIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 5W 5D 14L from 24 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
EIF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 15L across 24 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for EIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 0.83 PPG, EIF on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
EIF's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; EIF are on 0.96 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: EIF in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
EIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and EIF in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while EIF have gone 4W 5D 15L in their last 24 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or EIF away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.18 PPG; EIF away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mariehamn have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting EIF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
0
Draws
0
EIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and EIF?
From 3 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, EIF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and EIF last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Mariehamn 3-0 EIF.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and EIF?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
EIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 54%, EIF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Mariehamn and 73% for EIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 46% of games; EIF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / EIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play EIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Mariehamn's games and 64% of EIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs EIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mariehamn's matches and 73% of EIF's.
Do Mariehamn and EIF tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, EIF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mariehamn run riot with a 3-0 hammering of EIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat EIF 3-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.71 xG and EIF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. EIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against EIF attack 0.77 / defence 1.46, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 52% | Draw 25% | EIF 23%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 67%, EIF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
EIF's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.83 PPG, EIF 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. EIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.