KuPS 2-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Savon Sanomat Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 14 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 0.79 xG and Mariehamn 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.821 / defence 0.931 | Mariehamn attack 0.907 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 0.956 / away 1.537. Data: 3 KuPS games / 2 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KuPS 19% | Draw 36% | Mariehamn 45%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 5.26 | Draw 2.78 | Mariehamn 2.22. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Savon Sanomat Areena • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 19% | Draw 36% | Mariehamn 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG KuPS 0.79 / Mariehamn 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.821 / def 0.931 | Mariehamn attack 0.907 / def 1.011 | league avg home 0.956 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mariehamn xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 2 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 19% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 45% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.82x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
19%
5.26
36%
2.75
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.09
1.30
Mariehamn xG
5.26
19%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.0 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for KuPS and 1.30 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Mariehamn 2-0 at Savon Sanomat Areena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 0.79 xG and Mariehamn 1.30 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 19% | Draw 36% | Mariehamn 45%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a KuPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.