KuPS 0-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Väre Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Väre Areena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — KuPS are significantly better at Väre Areena than their overall form suggests.
Ilves (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in KuPS's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — KuPS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ilves in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 51% versus Ilves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 49% | Ilves 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.06 xG and Ilves 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.275 / defence 0.654 | Ilves attack 1.105 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.476. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KuPS's defence rating of 0.654 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 KuPS games / 42 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 21% | Ilves 19%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Ilves 5.26. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 60% | Ilves 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 21% | Ilves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG KuPS 2.06 / Ilves 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.275 / def 0.654 | Ilves attack 1.105 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: KuPS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ilves xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 0 - 0 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 60% chance of winning, Ilves a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Ilves in?
KuPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Ilves (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.10x) against KuPS's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.73
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.12
1.07
Ilves xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
41.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for KuPS and 1.07 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 47 games, going 30W 11D 6L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (17W 8D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 16W 7D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 30W 11D 6L in their last 47 games (2.15 PPG), while Ilves have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.29 PPG; Ilves away: 0.92 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ilves in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 46%, Ilves 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KuPS) and 54% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of KuPS's recent matches and 58% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of KuPS's recent games and 54% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ilves in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KuPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 21, as KuPS and Ilves drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.06 xG and Ilves 1.07 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Ilves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.27 / defence 0.65 against Ilves attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 60% | Draw 21% | Ilves 19%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 49%, Ilves 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ilves's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.