KuPS 0-0 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KuPS at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs HJK Helsinki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Savon Sanomat Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.92 xG and HJK Helsinki 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.004. Data: 1 KuPS games / 1 HJK Helsinki games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 22% | HJK Helsinki 19%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | HJK Helsinki 5.26. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Savon Sanomat Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 22% | HJK Helsinki 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG KuPS 1.92 / HJK Helsinki 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: KuPS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
HJK Helsinki xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
KuPS 0 - 0 HJK Helsinki.
Where is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Savon Sanomat Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki part of?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 59% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both KuPS and HJK Helsinki will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and HJK Helsinki in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.97x the league average against HJK Helsinki's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (0.85x) against KuPS's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.57
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.90
0.98
HJK Helsinki xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
36.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are KuPS and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for KuPS and 0.98 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Pre-Season
HJK Helsinki
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-4 on 27 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
KuPS
2
Draws
1
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 7, HJK Helsinki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when HJK Helsinki 0-4 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at KuPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Savon Sanomat Areena, Regular Season - 5, as KuPS and HJK Helsinki drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.92 xG and HJK Helsinki 0.98 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. HJK Helsinki landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against HJK Helsinki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 59% | Draw 22% | HJK Helsinki 19%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.