Kooteepee 1-3 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kooteepee host AC Oulu at Arto Tolsa Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.09 xG and AC Oulu 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.798 / defence 1.388 | AC Oulu attack 0.763 / defence 1.571. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.438. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.571 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Kooteepee games / 6 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 27% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 47%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | AC Oulu 2.13. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 27% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Kooteepee 1.09 / AC Oulu 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.798 / def 1.388 | AC Oulu attack 0.763 / def 1.571 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.52
AC Oulu xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs AC Oulu kick off?
Kooteepee vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 15 June 2021 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs AC Oulu?
Kooteepee 1 - 3 AC Oulu.
Where is Kooteepee vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs AC Oulu part of?
Kooteepee vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 27% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kooteepee and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kooteepee and AC Oulu in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
27%
3.69
26%
3.90
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.61
1.52
AC Oulu xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
6%
16.91
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.52 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and AC Oulu runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kooteepee's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
1
Draws
7
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and AC Oulu?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, AC Oulu have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when AC Oulu 0-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and AC Oulu?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Kooteepee 1-3 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.09 xG and AC Oulu 1.52 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against AC Oulu attack 0.76 / defence 1.57, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 27% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 47%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.