Ilves 0-0 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Lahti encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Lahti travel to Tammelan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 2W 5D 3L at Tammelan Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tammelan Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Lahti have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Lahti have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ilves are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Ilves have won 3, Lahti 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 5–1 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 59% versus Lahti 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 56% | Lahti 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.38 xG and Lahti 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.964 / defence 1.020 | Lahti attack 0.977 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.213. Data: 22 Ilves games / 22 Lahti games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ilves 41% | Draw 27% | Lahti 32%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Lahti 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 70% | Lahti 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 41% | Draw 27% | Lahti 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Ilves 1.38 / Lahti 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.964 / def 1.020 | Lahti attack 0.977 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Ilves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lahti xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Lahti kick off?
Ilves vs Lahti kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Lahti?
Ilves 0 - 0 Lahti.
Where is Ilves vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Lahti part of?
Ilves vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 41% chance of winning, Lahti a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ilves and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Lahti?
Record (6 meetings): Ilves 3W | Draws 2 | Lahti 1W.
What form are Ilves and Lahti in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Lahti (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ilves's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lahti's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.71
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.59
1.21
Lahti xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ilves and 1.21 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 16D 21L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lahti sit at 0.93 PPG from 54 outings (12W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.24 PPG, Lahti on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ilves's home form reads 9W 6D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Lahti have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 0.96 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Lahti in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Lahti have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Lahti away?
Ilves's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.22 PPG; Lahti away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Lahti won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
4
Draws
2
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, Lahti have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Ilves 1-0 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Lahti?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 67%, Lahti 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ilves) and 52% (Lahti). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lahti in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Lahti?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ilves's games and 44% of Lahti's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ilves's matches and 52% of Lahti's.
Do Ilves and Lahti tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lahti in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ilves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Ilves and Lahti drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.38 xG and Lahti 1.21 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lahti landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Lahti attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 41% | Draw 27% | Lahti 32%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 56%, Lahti 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lahti's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.24 PPG, Lahti 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.