Ilves 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KuPS have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Ilves, 3 for KuPS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
KuPS — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 51% versus KuPS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 62% | KuPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.067 / defence 0.876 | KuPS attack 0.916 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.653. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 28% | KuPS 34%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | KuPS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 70% | KuPS 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 28% | KuPS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Ilves 1.44 / KuPS 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.067 / def 0.876 | KuPS attack 0.916 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.33
KuPS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 16 October 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, KuPS a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Record (7 meetings): Ilves 4W | Draws 0 | KuPS 3W.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.07) and KuPS's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.92x) against Ilves's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.63
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.77
1.33
KuPS xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ilves and 1.33 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Ilves have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 32W 10D 11L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 33W 10D 10L from 53 games, 2.06 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Ilves against 2.06 for KuPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.35 PPG from 26 outings (19W 4D 3L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 11W 10D 5L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.83 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ilves's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 32W 10D 11L in their last 53 games (2.00 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 10D 10L in their last 53 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
Ilves's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.35 PPG; KuPS away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, KuPS in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 58%, KuPS 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Ilves and 50% for KuPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ilves's games and 58% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Ilves's matches and 50% of KuPS's.
Do Ilves and KuPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, KuPS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.33 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against KuPS attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 28% | KuPS 34%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 62%, KuPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
KuPS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 2.00 PPG, KuPS 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.