Haka 4-2 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kooteepee make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 5 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kooteepee (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Haka. A 1.70 PPG lead over Kooteepee (2.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Haka register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kooteepee in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haka lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 56% versus Kooteepee 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 56% | Kooteepee 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.35 xG and Kooteepee 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.173 / defence 1.125 | Kooteepee attack 0.723 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.010. Data: 26 Haka games / 4 Kooteepee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haka 45% | Draw 36% | Kooteepee 19%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Kooteepee 5.26. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Haka 70% | Kooteepee 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 45% | Draw 36% | Kooteepee 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Haka 1.35 / Kooteepee 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.173 / def 1.125 | Kooteepee attack 0.723 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Haka (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kooteepee xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Kooteepee kick off?
Haka vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Haka 4 - 2 Kooteepee.
Where is Haka vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Kooteepee part of?
Haka vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 45% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Haka and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
Record (3 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 1W.
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.17) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kooteepee's attack (0.72x) against Haka's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (26/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
45%
2.21
36%
2.80
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Haka xG
Total xG
2.17
0.82
Kooteepee xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Haka and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Haka and 0.82 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 6D 8L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.41 PPG from 27 outings (2W 5D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Haka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Haka's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.93 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Kooteepee away?
Haka's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.77 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kooteepee have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
3
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Kooteepee have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Kooteepee?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Haka, 62% for Kooteepee — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haka and 77% for Kooteepee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Kooteepee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Haka's games and 62% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haka's matches and 77% of Kooteepee's.
Do Haka and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Kooteepee 4-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.35 xG and Kooteepee 0.82 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.17 / defence 1.12 against Kooteepee attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haka 45% | Draw 36% | Kooteepee 19%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, Kooteepee 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.41. Form held, and they took the win. Haka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.