Gnistan 0-0 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gnistan vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Markku.fi Areena plays host to Gnistan versus Inter Turku in Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 26. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gnistan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gnistan at Markku.fi Areena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Gnistan 3W, Inter Turku 4W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with Gnistan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gnistan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 63% versus Inter Turku 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 58% | Inter Turku 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.27 xG and Inter Turku 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 1.165 / defence 1.110 | Inter Turku attack 1.128 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.167. Inter Turku's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Gnistan games / 44 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 33% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 42%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Inter Turku 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter Turku are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter Turku if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 70% | Inter Turku 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 26 | Venue: Markku.fi Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 33% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Gnistan 1.27 / Inter Turku 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 1.165 / def 1.110 | Inter Turku attack 1.128 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Inter Turku xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Inter Turku kick off?
Gnistan vs Inter Turku kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at Markku.fi Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Inter Turku?
Gnistan 0 - 0 Inter Turku.
Where is Gnistan vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Markku.fi Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Inter Turku part of?
Gnistan vs Inter Turku is a Championship Group - 26 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 33% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gnistan and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Inter Turku?
Record (9 meetings): Gnistan 3W | Draws 2 | Inter Turku 4W.
What form are Gnistan and Inter Turku in?
Gnistan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 1.17x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter Turku's attack (1.13x) against Gnistan's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.92
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.74
1.46
Inter Turku xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.46 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Gnistan have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 19W 17D 21L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku's form line: 30W 19D 8L from 57 games, 1.91 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter Turku are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gnistan.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gnistan have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 15W 8D 6L from 29 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gnistan are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.61 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter Turku in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 30W 19D 8L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Inter Turku away?
Inter Turku's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.31 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Gnistan or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 7 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 12 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gnistan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter Turku — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gnistan
3
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 3, Inter Turku have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2026, when Gnistan 0-0 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 62%, Inter Turku 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Gnistan) and 48% (Inter Turku).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gnistan's games and 55% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gnistan vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Gnistan's recent games and 48% of Inter Turku's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gnistan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan and Inter Turku finished level at 0-0 at Markku.fi Areena, Championship Group - 26, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.27 xG and Inter Turku 1.46 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Inter Turku landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Inter Turku attack 1.13 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 33% | Draw 26% | Inter Turku 42%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 58%, Inter Turku 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter Turku's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gnistan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.