AC Oulu 0-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round as AC Oulu welcome VPS to Raatin stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Oulu stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
VPS — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VPS have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AC Oulu 2.00 PPG, VPS 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
VPS trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 61% versus VPS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AC Oulu 64% | VPS 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.45 xG and VPS 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.878 / defence 0.923 | VPS attack 1.098 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 AC Oulu games / 22 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 36% | Draw 26% | VPS 37%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | VPS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 40% | VPS 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 36% | Draw 26% | VPS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG AC Oulu 1.45 / VPS 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.878 / def 0.923 | VPS attack 1.098 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: VPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.47
VPS xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs VPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs VPS?
AC Oulu 0 - 1 VPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs VPS part of?
AC Oulu vs VPS is a Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 36% chance of winning, VPS a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AC Oulu and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and VPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. VPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AC Oulu's attack rating (0.88) and VPS's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.80
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.92
1.47
VPS xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.47 for VPS, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 13W 6D 9L from 28 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 12L across 28 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 1.61 PPG, VPS on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 7W 4D 3L from 14 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 7W 2D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AC Oulu are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 2.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and VPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while VPS have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or VPS away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.79 PPG; VPS away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AC Oulu and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2026, when VPS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Oulu's record when hosting VPS specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when VPS 5-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 50%, VPS 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for AC Oulu and 71% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AC Oulu's games and 64% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of AC Oulu's matches and 71% of VPS's.
Do AC Oulu and VPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VPS in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out AC Oulu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.45 xG and VPS 1.47 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against VPS attack 1.10 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 36% | Draw 26% | VPS 37%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 64%, VPS 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
VPS's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.61 PPG, VPS 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.