West Ham 1-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Tottenham travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024, 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 4W 5D 1L at London Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — West Ham are significantly better at London Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tottenham — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. West Ham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Tottenham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, West Ham have won 2, Tottenham 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with West Ham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tottenham trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 54% and Tottenham 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 52% | Tottenham 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.73 xG and Tottenham 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.986 / defence 1.076 | Tottenham attack 1.270 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.518. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 West Ham games / 67 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 32% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 45%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 2.22. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 60% | Tottenham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 32% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG West Ham 1.73 / Tottenham 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.986 / def 1.076 | Tottenham attack 1.270 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Tottenham xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Tottenham kick off?
West Ham vs Tottenham kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
West Ham 1 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is West Ham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Tottenham part of?
West Ham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 32% chance of winning, Tottenham a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both West Ham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 1 | Tottenham 2W.
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in?
West Ham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Tottenham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.99) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
32%
3.17
23%
4.30
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.80
2.07
Tottenham xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
4%
25.22
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for West Ham and 2.07 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 23W 15D 29L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Tottenham's form line: 35W 11D 21L from 67 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 12W 10D 11L from 33 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.96 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 69%.
Last 67 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 games (1.25 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 35W 11D 21L in their last 67 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Tottenham away?
West Ham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.58 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Tottenham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 54%, Tottenham 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (West Ham) and 70% (Tottenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of West Ham's games and 67% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of West Ham's matches and 70% of Tottenham's.
West Ham and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as West Ham and Tottenham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.73 xG and Tottenham 2.07 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Tottenham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Tottenham attack 1.27 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 32% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 45%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 52%, Tottenham 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.