West Ham 4-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brentford travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, West Ham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, West Ham have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Brentford have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brentford away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
West Ham are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Brentford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for West Ham.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended West Ham 2–3 Brentford — a Brentford win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Brentford have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brentford trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 49% versus Brentford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 49% | Brentford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.28 xG and Brentford 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.846 / defence 1.017 | Brentford attack 0.805 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.552. Data: built from West Ham's last 63 games and Brentford's last 63.
Result probabilities: West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.76 | Draw 3.56 | Brentford 2.80. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Brentford have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 0), but West Ham carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — West Ham 36% and Brentford 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: West Ham 40% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG West Ham 1.28 / Brentford 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.846 / def 1.017 | Brentford attack 0.805 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.552 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — West Ham and Brentford level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brentford xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Brentford FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Brentford kick off?
West Ham vs Brentford kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 26 February 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Brentford?
West Ham 4 - 2 Brentford.
Where is West Ham vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Brentford part of?
West Ham vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 36% chance of winning, Brentford a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both West Ham and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Ham's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 63 games and Brentford's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.56
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.55
1.27
Brentford xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for West Ham and 1.27 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 21W 13D 29L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Brentford's form line: 22W 18D 23L from 63 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.21 PPG, Brentford on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 31 home games (13W 8D 10L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 8W 8D 15L from their last 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Brentford in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Brentford have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Brentford away?
West Ham's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.52 PPG; Brentford away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2026, when Brentford won Brentford 3-0 West Ham.
West Ham's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 1, Brentford have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did West Ham and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Brentford 3-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 48%, Brentford 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (West Ham) and 45% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brentford in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of West Ham's recent matches and 45% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of West Ham's recent games and 45% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of West Ham's recent matches and 74% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Brentford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Brentford 4-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.28 xG and Brentford 1.27 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Brentford attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 49%, Brentford 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.21 PPG, Brentford 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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