West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Bournemouth travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at London Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bournemouth's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of West Ham's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for West Ham, 0 for Bournemouth and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
West Ham in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 62% and Bournemouth 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 56% | Bournemouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.949 / defence 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 1.248 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.280. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 West Ham games / 64 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Bournemouth 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
West Ham dominate the H2H record, yet Bournemouth are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 70% | Bournemouth 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 74% | xG West Ham 1.80 / Bournemouth 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.949 / def 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 1.248 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Bournemouth xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Ham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
West Ham 0 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is West Ham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Bournemouth part of?
West Ham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 33% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both West Ham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
Record (7 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 5 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.95) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.99
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.82
2.03
Bournemouth xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.04
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for West Ham and 2.03 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham's recent record stands at 17W 16D 31L from 64 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 19L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.05 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 8W 7D 17L from 32 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 12D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 64%.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 17W 16D 31L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 24W 21D 19L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 0.97 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Ham
6
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Bournemouth?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — West Ham at 66%, Bournemouth at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for West Ham and 78% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of West Ham's games and 78% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of West Ham's matches and 78% of Bournemouth's.
Do West Ham and Bournemouth tend to score early?
West Ham have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Ham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Bournemouth finished level at 0-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 2.03 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bournemouth landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.05 PPG, Bournemouth 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.