Tottenham 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 37 as Tottenham welcome Burnley to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tottenham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Tottenham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tottenham, 1 for Burnley and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 40% versus Burnley 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 60% | Burnley 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.07 xG and Burnley 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.461 / defence 0.986 | Burnley attack 0.679 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.320. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Tottenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Tottenham games / 35 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 65% | Draw 20% | Burnley 15%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Burnley 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tottenham 50% | Burnley 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 65% | Draw 20% | Burnley 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Tottenham 2.07 / Burnley 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.461 / def 0.986 | Burnley attack 0.679 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Burnley xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Burnley kick off?
Tottenham vs Burnley kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Burnley?
Tottenham 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Tottenham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Burnley part of?
Tottenham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 65% chance of winning, Burnley a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tottenham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Burnley in?
Tottenham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tottenham's attack at 1.46x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.96
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.95
0.88
Burnley xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
52.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Tottenham and 0.88 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 19W 5D 11L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 7W 13D 15L from 35 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (11W 1D 5L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 7D 8L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.91 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 19W 5D 11L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Burnley have gone 7W 13D 15L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Burnley away?
Tottenham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.00 PPG; Burnley away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Burnley in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Tottenham won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Tottenham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Burnley?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 41%, Burnley 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Tottenham) and 41% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Burnley in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Tottenham's recent matches and 53% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Tottenham's matches and 41% of Burnley's.
Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Burnley 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.07 xG and Burnley 0.88 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.46 / defence 0.99 against Burnley attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 65% | Draw 20% | Burnley 15%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 60%, Burnley 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.