Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Liverpool at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Liverpool travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Nottingham Forest's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Liverpool — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Liverpool have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Nottingham Forest's games and 70% of Liverpool's (from Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Liverpool 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Nottingham Forest 0–3 Liverpool — a Liverpool win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Liverpool trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Liverpool 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Liverpool 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nottingham Forest surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.21 xG and Liverpool 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.908 / defence 1.016 | Liverpool attack 1.227 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Liverpool bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Nottingham Forest's projected output down. Liverpool have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 1.94. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 64 games and Liverpool's last 64.

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 23% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 54%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.36 | Draw 4.32 | Liverpool 1.85. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.21 / 1.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 60% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 70% (last 10 away games).

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